Montreal, Canada
Asset deflation hasn't escaped commercial aircraft pricing since the credit crisis first began to unfold almost 36 months ago. Monthly lease rates for the most popular aircraft have declined as much as 22% since early 2008.
Inflation is still running wild in healthcare, tuition, medicines and several food groups, including cocoa, coffee and orange juice. But overall, the primary trend for most goods is definitely heading down, posing significant risks to the global economic outlook.
Falling prices can crimp corporate earnings as consumers decide to delay purchases anticipating even lower prices down the road. Consumer balance sheets remain impaired with big ticket personal asset like real estate and stocks still down about a third since their peaks in 2006 and 2007, respectively.
Boeing Co. (NYSE-BA) dominates the commercial aircraft market along with European-based Airbus, a subsidiary of EADS. I fly on Airbus products more these days because Air Canada, Swiss and Lufthansa – the Star Alliance partners I usually fly – maintain sizable fleets in the A340, A330, A321 and A320 types. Personally, my favorite plane is the Boeing 777.
As a kid, there was nothing more thrilling for me than flying a plane; if I hadn't discovered the financial markets as a hobby 22 years ago, I probably would have become a commercial airline pilot. More than just about anything else, taking-off on a big jet gets my engines going. I'm still amazed how a 100,000 pound machine can lift off the ground and climb to 37,000 feet in a matter of minutes. I'd have to say that the airplane ranks as one of the greatest discoveries by modern man; the world has literally shrunk.
Yet, despite the advancements in commercial aircraft technologies, the Boeing 707, which was introduced by Pan Am way back in 1958, doesn't fly any slower than a super modern Boeing 777 today. Amazingly, cruising speed for the biggest jets remains the same in 2010 as it did 52 years ago at about 550 miles per hour. The Concorde changed that, briefly, traveling at Mach 2.2 (more than twice the speed of sound) but was an expensive sideshow to maintain and unfortunately, drew the death-knell following the tragic Air France Concorde crash in 2001.
This week marks the biggest event in aviation as commercial and military industry officials converge at the Farnborough International Airshow in the United Kingdom. Leasing companies have the edge this year as airlines seek to finance new aircraft – mostly Asian and Middle Eastern carriers. And bargains beckon; the cost of a new Boeing 777-200 is 6% less compared to 24 months ago. Even more attractive is the 777's competitor, the Airbus A330-200, which is now 20% less compared to 2008 prices.
One thing is for sure. Though I might regret not getting my pilots' license, I certainly will never regret not owning an airline. I can't think of a business model that's worse!
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